原标题：经济学人

　　美国总统预选之倚天屠龙记：金毛狮王VS灭绝师太

　　 2016.03.05

　　总第74期 ►The prospect of Trump v Clinton is grim. But look carefully and 2016 offers a faint promise of something better.川普与希拉里之战前景不甚明了，但是让我们拭目以待，2016年仍然有着微弱的美好憧憬。通知：本公众号推送的第73期双语文章PDF精排版整理完成，已存放于百度云盘，请点击链接获取。发布的规律一般都是在公众号推送一期新文章的同时会给出上一期的PDF精排版，如果您对排版效果、翻译内容有建议或者遇到链接失效等问题，请在公众号后台跟我留言。不敢说呈现给大家的是最高质量的翻译，但是可以保证应该是高质量且最用心的《经济学人》双语精析版本，谢谢各位长期以来的信任和支持。请点击百度云盘链接：s/1i4x85U1下载文档或者在后台直接回复"经济学人"获取链接。本文摘自2016年3月5日《经济学人》封面Leaders版块，请点击"阅读原文"查看本文纯英文版本。导读：这篇文章是最新一期经济学人（2016年3月5日）的封面文章。难度比较大，主要是因为背景知识繁杂，另外加上很多句子比较长，《红船精神启航的梦想》带着墨香！生词也很多，为此我也查阅了不少资料来保证翻译的准确性，但是毕竟时间有限，难免可能有疏漏。在开始解析之前引用《大空头》电影中引用的马克·吐温的名言，与自己与各位共勉，很多我们平常见到的词汇或者表达方式，可能想当然地一看就那么过去了，实际上其中可能大有文章，比如文章中各种熟词生意和一些表达方式的转换，都是非常值得注意的地方。让你陷入麻烦的，并不是你未知的东西，而是那些你确信无疑、但实际上并不是那么回事的东西。因为要解析的句子较多，放在文首不太方便，所以会以注释的形式放在每段末尾，另外文中的Mrs. Clinton根据中文的习惯都翻译成了希拉里。 1. HILLARY CLINTON will be the Democratic nominee; the man most likely to face her in November on the Republican ticket is Donald Trump. ▌希拉里·克林顿将成为民主党的提名者，她在11月可能将要面临的对手是共和党的候选人特朗德·川普。 2. Those are the battle lines after the primaries on Super Tuesday. In many ways this is profoundly gloomy. Mr Trump has said ever more repellentthings about immigrants, women and Muslims and declined tocondemn whitesupremacists. But he changes his sales pitchas easily as his socks: in a speech after winning seven out of 11 states, he stopped snarlingand tried to sound presidential. It would be unwise to underestimate his ability to feign gravitas and transform himself into an apparent centrist. ▌这些即是在总统预选日"超级星期二"之后的对峙形势。从诸多方面而言，这个情况都令人极度沮丧。川普在移民、妇女和穆斯林方面大放厥词愈发令人反感，并且拒绝谴责白人至上主义者。但是他换一套推销辞令就跟他换双袜子那么简单：在11个州中的7个州取得胜利后，他在演讲中不再胡搅蛮缠，而尝试使自己的话语听起来有点总统范。如果你要低估川普装逼的能力，或者觉得他没有能耐摇身一变成为一个道貌岸然的中间派，那你可能是脑子秀逗了。注：最后一句大家都能够看懂，但是翻译时要值得注意，如果直接翻译成"如果你要低估川普装逼或者摇身一变成为一个道貌岸然的中间派的能力"这样也说得过去，但是我觉得还是分开处理的译文可读性更好。另外这种it做形式主语的句子，翻译时一般都会主干独立翻译，放后面还是放前面要根据情况确定，大部分放后面。 3. The only obstaclebetween Mr Trump and the Oval Office would be Mrs Clinton. She is aformidableand in some ways admirable candidate, but flawed. She is unloved by bits of her partys baseand subject to an investigation into whether she mishandled classified information. ▌川普和总统交椅之间的距离隔着一个希拉里。候选人希拉里是个可怕的对手，而且在某些方面还令人钦佩，但是她还是有着不少的缺点。一些民主党的铁杆选民并不怎么待见她，并且在她是否在机密信息处理不当这个问题上，她还在接受调查。注：partys base这个短语不要一掠而过，这是个政治上常用语，见维基百科的解释： In politics, the termbaserefers to a group of voters who almost always support a single partys candidates for elected office. Base voters are very unlikely to vote for the candidate of an opposing party, regardless of the specific views each candidate holds. 4. ①Small wonder that so many who contemplate American politics today sink into despair. ②But with a large dose of optimism and continued faith in the good sense of American voters, it is just possible to see Novembers election in a more positive light. The vote for the presidency could yet yield the reshaping of the two main parties and a political realignmentthat leads to a less stagnant and gridlockedgovernment. ▌如此多的对美国政治苦思冥想的美国人陷入绝望之中，出现这种情况也不足为奇。但是，由于美国选民一向乐观情绪爆棚，并且一度信心满满，有了这些良好意识，我们对于11月份的选举还是有可能应抱着积极的态度。总统选举还是有可能能导致两个主要党派的重组和改变政治格局，这些可以改善目前政府停滞不前和陷入僵局的状况。 This optimisticscenariodepends on converting todays antagonisminto a force for change. The primaries have made clear that a large share of American voters are angry: angry with their own sides representatives, angry with their opponents and angry with the world. ▌将现在的敌意转变成做出改变的合力，这是出现乐观形势的关键。通过总统预选，形势已经很清楚，美国大部分选民中都充斥着愤怒的情绪，他们对其自己阵容的代表怒火中烧，对他们的对手们嗔目切齿，并对整个世界也忿忿不平。 6. So far, that anger has been channelled into divisiveness.On the right, Mr Trump has exploited the discontent by insulting his way to the front of the pack, stirring up racial resentment as he goes, delighting crowds with a list of proposals that run from the unethical to the unworkable.On parts of the left, the rageis more polite but, particularly where it is aimed at Wall Street, no lessdeeply felt. ▌目前，这些愤怒的情绪已经导致了分歧。就右派而言，川普将人们的不满情绪利用到了极致，他的侮辱之道使他走到了候选人的前列，奇迹Mu开服一条龙服务所到之处种族怨恨顿生，并且抛出各种不道德而且不切实际的提议来哗众取宠。就部分左翼而言，愤怒的情绪稍微有所缓和，但是尤其是在针对华尔街方面，愤怒之情同样丝毫不减。注：标红的句子除了不好翻译之外，pack这个词要值得注意，可以指"一群人"，并且表示"竞赛中的落后者"。 7. In recent elections partisan fissureshave been reinforced by the brutal maths of voter turnout. ①Polling shows that a majority of Republicans and Democrats believe that the other lot are so depraved as to pose a threat to the nation itself.Because it is hard to persuade people who think like this to switch sides, electoral strategists argue that chasingswing voters②is pointless.③The easiest extra votes come from the 40% of the electorate who typically stay at home in a presidential poll. Each side therefore concentrates on stirring up people who support it but might not vote. That raises the anger to a new pitch. ▌在最近的选举中，通过投票率的严峻数据来看，党派分歧一直在恶化。民调显示大部分共和党人和民主党人都认为对方已经败坏到会成为国家的威胁。因为要说服有此想法的人转换阵营的难度很大，选举战略分析师认为在这种情况下去追捧摇摆选民是没有任何意义的。其实在大选时有些选民通常会待在家中，但是这些人中有40%是最容易获得的额外投票。因此每个阵营都集中精力来鼓动这部分支持他们却又不投票的选民参与投票。这样就把愤怒的情绪推向了一个新高潮。注：①注意本句中的lot又是有"一群人"的意思，后文还有类似的单词，注意作者的变换。 ②swing voter的释义见中文维基百科：游离票（swing voter），又称中间选民，指的是在一次选举未有在事前决定投票意向的人士。这些人比较依靠选举前夕的宣传、议题和事件决定立场，而非某候选人或政党的坚定支持者。与之相对的选民称为铁票。一般的选举中由于游离票常是致胜关键，故为各政党争取支持的对象。 ③这句话容易看懂，但是可能不太好翻译，建议先翻译从句，因为中文喜欢先叙述，再总结，先旧知信息，后新知信息。要不你尝试完全按照英文的句序翻译看看，保证诘屈聱牙。 8. If this desperate logic is repeated in a Clinton v Trump race, the contest could have consequences both ugly and far reaching, particularly for the Republicans. After winning a race fuelled by anger and led by Mr Trump, the party would almost certainly ditch its attachment to free trade and a muscular foreign policy and retreat into isolationism, xenophobia and economic populism.If it survived that shift (a big if), it would by the middle of the century be a white nationalist party in a country that will be majority non white. More likely, it would fracture, parts of the Republican coalitionspinning offto find a new home elsewhere (see page 36). ▌在希拉里和川普之间的竞争之路上，如果这种孤注一掷的逻辑重演，竞争的结果可能既会丑态百出又会影响深远，这对于共和党人尤其如此。共和党在赢得一场充斥着愤怒情绪和川普领先的胜利后，他们几乎完全会摒弃其拥护自由贸易和强硬外交政策的立场，并回归到孤立主义、排外主义和经济民粹主义的阵容。如果共和党在这个转变中熬过去的话（这个假设不大会成立），在本世纪中叶，共和党将会在一个非白人占多数的国家中成为一个白人民族主义的政党。更有可能发生的是共和党将会分崩离析，部分共和党内的联盟将会土崩瓦解并另立门户。注：标红句子中after winning这种独立分词结构，首先找主句的主语，才能确定翻译的准确，不要自己意淫，只拿着看得半懂不懂的理解乱猜，英文的语法比中文严谨得多，一定要培养这种意识，要按照语法和作者的写作思路来，不要YY。否则出了无数错误，你还不知道是在哪里，还要吐槽 （点击蓝色字体查看解析）？ 9. For Mrs Clinton, going down the angry route might not split the party, but would almost certainly result in defeat. Democrats tend tofare poorlywhen their anguishoverflows and begins to sound like contempt for America. It is hard to imagine Mrs Clinton credibly playing the political insurgent. She has decades of experience when the angriest voters want a novice.Nobody can out hateMr Trump. So it is encouraging that Mrs Clinton celebrated her victories on Super Tuesday by calling for more "love and kindness" in politics. ▌对于希拉里而言，顺着这条愤怒之道前行可能并不会导致党派分裂，但是也完全很有可能会使自己败走麦城。当民主党人的苦恼情绪四处蔓延，并且这种情绪开始使人们看起来像是对国家的一种蔑视的时候，那么民主党人将会遭遇失败。很难想象希拉里会真正成为一个政治上的倒戈者。最为愤怒的那些选民都需要一个新面孔，这种情况希拉里几十年以来见得多了。没有人能够激怒川普并使其出局。因此当希拉里在"超级星期二"庆祝其胜利时呼吁政治应当更具"关爱和友好"时，这个表现相当令人鼓舞。注：这个句子我觉得容易理解错，这里的意思我认为应该是愤怒的选民很多时候不太满意现状，所以迁怒于频繁出现的老面孔，而想干脆用一个新人来改变自己的现状。另外fare poorly的含义见词典，out hate在词典上没有相关的注释，Webster在线词典找到的注释如下： to drive out by hostility a common way of dealing with offenders was to hate them out of the community C. M. Babcock Americas primary agenda: our interactive 2016 election calendar 10. The opportunity for a better outcome lies in the asymmetryof the risks. Mrs Clinton has the opportunity toput togethera coalition of anti Trump voters broader than the one that carried Barack Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012.Despair over Mr Trump has reached such an intensity among some Republicans that the usual rules about there being no swing voters may no longer apply. If Mrs Clinton were to combine a high turnout on her own side with a sizeable number of Republican abstentionsand spoiltballots and some voters who are prepared to switch from red to blue, then Democrats could not just win the presidency with a landslide, but also wrest backcontrol of the Senate. ▌各种风险的不对称是有机会出现更好结果的关键所在。希拉里有机会组织那些反对川普的选民形成一个广泛的反川普联盟，这个联盟比起当时支持巴拉克·奥巴马在2008和2012获胜的那个群体所涉及的广度要更大。共和党内部通常都不会出现摇摆选民，但是由于对川普的绝望情绪在共和党人中所产生的影响是如此的强烈，以至于这个通用规则不再适用。对于共和党人的弃权票、作废票以及那些准备从共和党转投民主党的选票，这些选票的数量相当之大，如果希拉里女士能够将这些选票与其自身支持她的高票数进行组合，民主党不仅仅能以压倒性优势获得总统选举，而且还能夺回参议院的控制权。注：这句也适合将从句提前翻译，另外这句话的意思是说共和党人一般都会投自己阵营的票，不会出现摇摆票，但是川普这厮可能太讨厌了，所以他们有可能会反水。语法和写作：Despair over Mr Trump has reached such an intensity among some Republicans that the usual rules about there being no swing voters may no longer apply. 介词带不动一个陈述句，所以介词后面只能跟疑问句改装的名词性从句，或者非谓语结构，如动名词和分词等，万万不能直接接一个陈述句，所以这里的be动词原形要改成分词的being结构，如果要使用句子，要将about改成连接词that，即that there are no swing voters，这样在句法上才算正确。但是这样的话句子会变成…that the usual rulesthat there are no swing voters may no longer apply，连续使用两个that似乎会让人觉得句子有点臃肿，所以作者用了独立分词结构，使句子的表达更有变化。 11. To form this coalition for stopping theblond Berlusconi ①, Mrs Clinton would have to woomoderate, business minded Republicans, and such folk would in turn have to put the national interest ahead of their tribes②victory in November. Republicans like to talk about the importance of character (see Lexington); Mr Trump offers a chance to show that means something. Mr Trump often insults other Republicans; they owe him no loyalty. Some prominent Republicans have already begun to attack him, including Mitt Romney, the partys nominee in 2012. More will have to make that move. ▌为了形成这种联盟来阻止金毛贝卢斯科尼，希拉里女士可能必须拉拢那些中立和有商业头脑的共和党人，这样的话，这些人将会反过来在11月份暂将自己阵营的胜利搁置一旁，而以整个国家的利益为重。共和党人喜欢谈论一个人品质的重要性，而川普正好提供了一个机会来展示品质确实意味着什么。川普经常侮辱其它共和党人，所以这些人并没有必要效忠川普。一些杰出的共和党人已经开始攻击川普，该党2012年的提名者米特·罗姆尼便名列其中，而且肯定更多的人也会有此动作。注：①贝卢斯科尼是意大利的总统，因为两人在行事风格、从政之道上有很多相似之处，因此鬼佬曾有人专门撰文称川普是美国的贝卢斯科尼 After the election a broad coalition could melt away as fast as it had formed. Democrats could use their advantage to force through what they can without the support of their opponents while they have the chance. They would then be punished in subsequent elections and the federal government would return to its familiar divided self: unable to pass budgets,trimspending on entitlements or find money to repair roads. ▌在选举结束后，广泛联盟可能会迅速消失，其消失之快会正如其成立之快一样。民主党在没有其对手的帮助下，他们会趁机利用其优势强势推行他们力所能及之事。然后，他们可能会在接下来的选举中受到惩罚，政府也会回归到大家熟悉的两党纷争状态：不能通过预案，不能削减在各项政府津贴上的支出，或者不能为修路筹集资金。注：本段是作者在分析大选后希拉里当选总统后会出现的两种情况之一，最后一段的首句是"Or"其实就是说第二种可能出现的情况，这段不是很好理解和翻译，总之一点，不要根据自己认识的单词来拼凑和杜撰属于自己的故事，要根据上下文和句子结构来理解。 13. Or a President Hillary Clinton might argue for the virtues of democratic compromise, and not claim that she can magically give her core voters everything they want all of the time. If she were able to pursue a different kind of politics, one that seeks to deal with some Republican concerns as well as Democratic ones, she might just hold the new consensus together for longer, reshaping the parties, making the country more governable and burying Mr Trumps offer of an America turned against itself. This is the distant promise that 2016 holds. As thebattle lines are drawn, try to bear it in mind. ▌或者，希拉里·克林顿总统可能会力主争取一些民主性妥协所带来的好处，魔兽开服一条龙服务对于其核心选民一直以来的任何要求，希拉里可能不会声称她会像个神仙姐姐一样一一予以满足。如果希拉里有能力谱写一段别具一格的政治历程，即无论是共和党的顾虑还是民主党的担忧，她都能拿捏得住的话，希拉里可能正好可以使这个全新的联盟所持续的时间更长，她可以改组政党的格局，可以使国家更为可控，并且能将川普所鼓吹的美国已国之不国的言论消除殆尽。这是2016年的大好远景。楚河汉界赫然在目，各位请将此铭记于心。注：整个一段都不是很好理解和翻译，重点讲讲最长的这句话，注意主干为she might just hold the new consensus together for longer.。这句中的consensus还是指前文的coalition。 If she were①able to pursue a different kind of politics, one②that seeks to deal with some Republican concerns as well as Democratic ones, she might just hold the new consensus together for longer, reshaping the parties, making the country more governable and burying Mr Trumps offer of an Americaturned against itself③. ①If she were able to pursue…作者这里用的是虚拟语气，意思是说这个情况出现的可能性几乎为零。 ②one代指前面的a different kind of politics，有人可能会问为什么要这么处理，而不直接用that接在a different kind of politics that seek(s)…或者a different kind of politics, which seeks…这样的限制性或者非限制性定语从句？原因在于seek后面的部分必须是指a different kind of politics（与众不同的政治历程），如果让that或which直接接在politics后面，《热血传奇》玩家故事七夕·朝夕。奇迹Mu开服一条龙服务会让读者产生误解：到底that或者which的先行词是修饰politics还是a different kind of politics这个整体，但是用了one这种重复同位语做下总结，就完全消除了这种可能会产生的误解。 ③Mr Trumps offer of an America turned against itself这部分非常不好翻译，turned against itself做后置定语修饰修饰an America，因为川普在此之前的演讲中曾说过："we are going to make America great again; we are going to win, win, win."而希拉里给予的回应是："We dont need to make America great again. America has never stopped being great." ④This is the distant promise that 2016 holds.这个句子很短，但是可能容易出错，这个定语从句2016 holds与前面的先行词promise放在一起形成的词组hold promise，表示的是"前景看好"之意，而不要理解成"2016年所作出的承诺"。